Regional Economic Report - Spring 2009

The U.S. economy’s decline is clearly continuing.

According to the Spring 2009 Regional Economic Report from Wright State University, GDP continued to fall at a very rapid rate (over 6 percent per year) through the first quarter. Recently though, the pace of decline appears to have begun to decelerate. Employment is continuing to fall by more than 500,000 employees per month, still a huge decline by long term historical standards, but smaller than the monthly declines of late 2008 and early 2009. Being a lagging indicator of the performance of the economy, employment will continue to fall for a while even after GDP begins rising. So the U.S. employment level is not expected to rise until at least mid-2010.

Total employment for the Dayton Metropolitan Area now stands at an average of 380,470 for the first quarter of this year, a drop of nearly 50,000 from the region’s first quarter peak level in 2001. Employment in nearly every industry is expected to fall for the next two quarters, with the only exceptions being due to temporary seasonal effects (such as the springtime increase in construction employment). Even in these cases, seasonal increases will be tempered by the economic downturn.

The Regional Economic Report is published semiannually and provides articles and forecasts on the Greater Dayton Area's economy. The Report is sent to friends of Wright State University and is available at no cost to any interested parties. To be added to the mailing list, please call (937) 775-3070.

Click here to view the latest report online.

Hot Summer Nights in the Heart of Centerville

Ow Ow! This next 3rd Friday event is going to be HOT! Be sure to keep your evening open on July 17th 5:00 PM to 9:00 PM.

Come out to meet and personally greet local firefighters. Businesses in the Heart of Centerville will be offering activities and promotions throughout the evening. Proceeds from this event will benefit the Local Firefighters Memorial Fund.

"3rd Fridays" Summer Events are just one more way the Heart of Centerville gives back to the community during the summer months through August. For more information, visit HeartofCenterville.com.

More Structured Finance Securities? Have We Learned Nothing?

From Bloomberg:

Morgan Stanley plans to repackage a downgraded collateralized debt obligation backed by leveraged loans into new securities with AAA ratings in the first transaction of its kind, said two people familiar with the sale.

Morgan Stanley is selling $87.1 million of securities that it expects to receive top AAA ratings and $42.9 million of notes graded Baa2, the second-lowest investment grade by Moody’s Investors Service, according to marketing documents obtained by Bloomberg News. The bonds were created from Greywolf CLO I Ltd., a CDO arranged in January 2007 by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and managed by Greywolf Capital Management LP, an investment firm based in Purchase, New York.

Two years after the credit markets began to seize up, costing the world’s biggest financial institutions $1.47 trillion in writedowns and losses, banks are again taking so-called structured finance securities and turning them into new debt investments with top credit ratings. While the Morgan Stanley deal is the first to involve CDOs of loans, banks have been doing the same with commercial mortgage-backed securities in recent weeks.

Sheesh. Is this really a good idea? Or as David Kurtz put it: "I'd love for someone to explain why this isn't the same old game of financial alchemy — turning toxic crap into AAA gold with the wave of a wand — that helped precipitate the financial crisis.

Changes to SBA 504 Loan Program Will Allow Businesses to Refinance Existing Debt

Small businesses seeking to expand will be able to refinance existing loans used to purchase real estate and other fixed assets as a result of permanent changes to the U.S. Small Business Administration’s 504 Certified Development Company loan program. The changes were authorized in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009.

The permanent changes will allow small businesses to restructure eligible debt to help improve their cash flow which, in turn, will enhance their viability and support growth and job creation. The 504 loan program can be used to purchase business real estate or fixed assets, such as heavy equipment or machinery, and expand current development projects.

“This is one more piece of the Recovery Act that is going to have a direct impact and put more money in the hands of small business owners just when they need it most,” SBA Administrator Karen G. Mills said. “Lower interest rates mean lower payments and less money going out the door each month in debt repayments. That means more cash on hand to keep their doors open, their employees working and to even expand and create more jobs.”

Mills pointed out that the 504 program’s refinancing changes are the latest in several Recovery Act provisions that have been implemented by the SBA in recent weeks. On March 16, the agency temporarily raised to 90 percent the guarantee level on many of its 7(a) program loans and reduced fees on both 7(a) and 504 loans, and also doubled to $5 million the surety bond guarantee level for small businesses competing for construction and service contracts.

Additionally, on June 15, SBA ARC loans became available for viable small businesses facing immediate financial hardship.

“All of these steps, along with other Recovery Act provisions, are aimed at increasing access to capital and giving small businesses just what they need to help lead our nation's economic recovery,” Mills said.

The 504 loan program is administered through 271 Certified Development Companies across the nation. SBA today began implementation of the changes by publishing them as a permanent rule in the Federal Register.

For more information on the 504 loan program and eligibility requirements, go to www.recovery.gov or www.sba.gov/recovery.

Trade Shows Can Be Extremely Effective Marketing Channel

Prompted by the flagging economy, many companies have cut their travel budgets and put restrictions on non-essential travel. For some companies, this means reducing trade show attendance, or cutting it entirely. This is unfortunate considering that trade shows can be one of the most effective marketing venues. Consider these statistics from the Center for Exhibition Industry Research:

• About 85 percent of trade show attendees buy one or more products exhibited. This percentage increases during a tight economic market.
• 90 percent of respondents in a recent survey stated that trade shows are their No. 1 source for making final purchasing decisions.
• 83 percent of attendees have buying influence and 57 percent are planning a purchase in the next 12 months.
• A salesperson makes an average of 20 to 30 contacts per day at a trade show, versus three to four sales calls in the field.
• 88 percent of exhibition attendees have not been called on by a salesperson in the preceding year.
• Exhibition leads cost 56 percent less to close than field sales calls ($625 versus $1,117).
• Roughly 48 percent of trade show leads require no sales call to close. For sales that do require closing calls, trade show leads require 1.3 calls to close versus 3.7 calls for field sales.

Although trimming marketing and trade show budgets is a common reaction during slow economic times, the statistics listed above show that can be a bad move. Trade shows reap such a valuable return on your marketing dollar because, for several days, you have your customers and potential customers, competitors, and suppliers all under one roof.

To learn more about trade show exhibiting, or to improve your trade show marketing efforts, check out these resources @ your Library and on the Web:

@ Your Library

The Complete Idiot's Guide to Trade Shows by Linda Musgrove

Guerrilla Trade Show Selling by Jay Conrad Levinson, Mark S.A. Smith, Orvel Ray Wilson

How to Get the Most Out of Trade Shows by Steve Miller

Power Exhibit Marketing : The Complete Guide to Successful Trade Shows, Conferences and Consumer Shows by Barry Siskind

Trade Show in a Day: Get It Done Right, Get It Done Fast by the Planning Shop

Online

About.com Event and Seminar Marketing
marketing.about.com/od/eventandseminarmarketing/Event_and_Seminar_Marketing.htm

Biz Trade Shows
http://www.biztradeshows.com/

Center for Exhibition Industry Research
http://www.ceir.org/

Exhibitor Online
http://www.exhibitoronline.com/

Ten Trade Show Exhibit Best Practices
sbinformation.about.com/cs/sales/a/tradeshow.htm

Trade Show News Network
http://www.tsnn.com/

Act Now! Save Ohio Libraries!

As you have probably heard on the news, Governor Strickland has proposed a last minute change to the State Budget: he proposes to cut funding for Ohio's Libraries by an additional $100 million dollars a year for the next two years.

The proposed cuts would cost Washington-Centerville Library almost $1.3 million over the next two years – a cut of more than 20% in total revenue. We have already absorbed drops in state funding while working hard to avoid reducing services for our patrons. We are fortunate to have a local operating levy to augment state funding but, if the Governor’s proposal is approved, we will have to consider reductions in service, materials and possibly even hours and staffing.

We have only 3-4 days to influence this proposed cut to library funding! Tell everyone you know to contact your legislators now! Call the Governor's office at 614-466-3555.

Check out our new Inside Story blog for more information.

Centerville Farmers Market Kicks Off Season

The City of Centerville welcomes back seven vendors from last year’s successful market, and has added two new vendors. Returning this year are Big Sky Bread with their all-natural, fresh baked products; Downing Fruit Farm and their sweet apples, peaches, and plums; Garber Farms will offer a variety of vegetables; Little Creek Gardens will present their organic produce and flowers; Morning Sun Organic Farm returns with their organic meat and eggs; Spring Valley Farm will again offer their produce; and White Mountain Honey Farm brings their honey and lotions, balms, and soaps.

New to the market this year are The Jam and Jelly Lady, offering jams, relishes, salsas, and preserves, and Flying Mouse Farms will bring their variety of veggies, fruits and syrups.

The market has grown to include sales of all types of produce – vegetables like squash, corn, tomatoes, beans, and salad greens, and fruits like peaches, pears, plums, and melons, as well as organic meats, eggs, and flour, fresh baked breads and cookies, cut flowers, as well as honey and honey-based products. At this point in the growing season, market-goers will find all kinds of salad greens, some flowering plants, as well as vegetable and bedding plants.

The Centerville Farmers Market was established by the City of Centerville, with the inspiration of Michael Malone, for the purpose of providing the Centerville community access to fresh and wholesome goods provided by vendors selling locally grown or produced goods, and to promote the vitality of downtown Centerville’s commerce. Market hours are 1:00 pm to 6:00 pm every Thursday, May 28 thru October 29, rain or shine, at the public parking lot on Maple Avenue in historic downtown Centerville.

More information about the Centerville Farmers Market is available on the city’s website at www.ci.centerville.oh.us. To ask a question or direct a comment, residents should call the Centerville Municipal Offices at 433-7151 or email to information@ci.centerville.oh.us.